The Collapse of Android

Android is falling apart.

Many major manufacturers are pushing back against Google's standards. Watching Amazon create the only legitimate competitor to the iPad Juggernaut, many manufacturers are looking into forking the Android code and building their own proprietary systems. No major Android manufacturer has found the little green robot to be very profitable: competition is fierce and margins are slim.

At the same time, it is estimated (from their court case with Broadcom) that Google only makes $3 for every android device sold: essentially nothing (at the same time, Apple makes over $500 on every iPhone, because of their amazing revenue sharing deals with carriers).

So no one is happy, and no one is making money. What does that mean?

It means forking - a lot of forking - as manufacturers look to create their own brands and value. Forking basically means that they will take some part of the sorta open-source Android code, and build their own UI on top of it to go with the hardware.

And the reality is, Google isn't going to stop them. Google is pissed off also - it has spent lots and lots of money on building Android and now buying Motorola Mobility, and has very little to show for it. As far as Google is concerned, most of the Android tablet manufacturers out there have really failed to follow through - except of course Amazon (which Google makes $0 off of - other than some in-app advertising sales).

I is not feeling good

What does this mean? It means that there will be many "Androids" running around out there, each trying to impress end users with its snappy UI, smooth scrolling, and shiny metal exterior (no word as of yet whether they will incorporate Asimov's 3 laws).



So what's Google's  plan? I have heard that with the recent re-branding of the market into "Google Play" - Google is basically giving up on the Android name and is going to try and build a brand around "Play" and/or "Nexus" as the core or "real" android experience.

In other words, there will still be a lot of work done on Android (Google after all has billions of dollars it has to spend on something - and there are only so many celebrity sushi chefs or Cirque du Soleil troupes you can hire), but Android as a Google brand is more or less done.

I is future?

To me, this ties into a greater story of Google and the post-IPO collapse of innovation and logic. Google wants to be able to search, index, and deliver everything everywhere. It has become obsessed with beating Facebook so that it can do so (as social media context increasing becomes something which you are searching for - or want your results adjusted by). And it is putting its core search experience (the black bar at the top? The social media results in the way of real search results? The random crap on the right side? etc etc) at risk - they could start to lose their grip on the one thing which made Google irreplaceable.

WTF

Will Google lose search? The short answer is no: there are no real competitors. Bing is the closest, and I think the only reason people use bing is because they have something against Google. Or maybe it's the pretty pictures, I'm not sure.

What I don't understand is this: Google has a huge, massive, enormous advantage in social media, and it isn't using it. Google indexes the real world, and knows where you are in it (If you have an Android phone, Google knows where you are, if you don't, every time you check in with Google, they know roughly where you are). Google knows whats around you, who's around you, what there is to see and do in the area. All Facebook knows is who you say you are connected to. Google could build a physical layer into their social media which would make Foursquare look like GeoCities - but they don't.

Overall, I am worried about Google. I think that after the IPO they have lost their way. I think they care about short term earnings, and they are spending irrationally. I think they don't want to become the next IBM or Microsoft: still massive companies, but not as relevant as they once were. So they are spending cash like a Kardashian in Milan, and all outside of el Goog's core competency - and showing very little in their results. Android is a failure (at making money), google social media is a failure, let's hope Google as a company can pull itself together.

The one thing which I really, really want to see? The Google Glass project - augmented reality through glasses. As my eyes get along with contacts like Santorum at a Gay Pride parade, I have to wear glasses. And the concept of being able to use that to layer information onto the physical world around me? Fantastic.

Early Prototype