NASA - Future

Well, NASA will still be a leader in robotic missions and space-based scientific research. Some of their new telescopes and probes are pretty fantastic. As for manned space flight, there has to be a military or economic reason for a nation state to be involved (prestige is usually lumped in with these two, in various combinations). For China, the incentive is still there. For the US, it no longer matters. The ISS was seen as a way to bring Russia and the US together on the field of a coldwar battleground, and also a way for international research work in space to be conducted. But if you look at shuttle flights for the last 10 years other than ISS delivery missions, the research is mostly fringe work. The three sources of economic gain are tourism, mining, and energy. This is not shocking as (without the tourism to the same extent) the quest for natural resources has always driven human expansion. Sadly, Orion is just a 50% larger Appolo, and as such, really does very little for anyone. It would be nice to make it to mars in 12 years, but it wont happen. Without economic or military objectives, the "should we got to Mars or pay for medicare prescription benefits so I can win Florida" debate will always end up with the "eventual left" (from Seinfeld) crowd winning out. The only thing that will get NASA going would be direct international competition on the nation-state level, assuming Americans still care enough in the prestige of their nation state. This is not to say that a Mars program would not have economic benefits--I think it would--but those benefits would not be tangible enough for a congressional committee. Basically, the only way we are going to be going anywhere is if we can make money doing it. And as you point out, that is not going to happen in the confines of the ISS. The trouble with manned space flight is that the human body is terrible at being in space. For mining, or energy generation, humans wont be involved. Tourism and prestige missions (China, possibly others) will keep human space flight alive, but not NASA.