We're Going to WAR

Ok ok. Ignoring the obvious fact that we are already at war... hear me out.

People liked to think that the world was going to be one big happy family after Papa Bear USA and Mama Bear Russia decided to hold hands and make love not war. Except, well, it didn't work out that way.

Right now we are staring down the barrel of four major military conflicts, and a number more are simmering on the back burner. This is not a peaceful time in human history (which, really, goes without saying), and much as most of the developed world right now would like to curl up in a ball and suck on their social security, now is in fact a time to be exerting our influence in the world actively, unless we want it all to go to shit and the US end up joining the UK in the has-been-hegemon club.

1) Venezuela vs Columbia
The Story:
Though things have somewhat calmed down now, nothing is ever calm in the land of El Chavismo. Walking straight down the path of crazed dictators everywhere, the mercurial demagogue has his own million man militia armed with AK-47s and machetes. His avowed enemy? The US-supported, and doing quite well for the first time in a long time thank you very much, Columbia. Columbia has risen from decades of conflict and is growing rapidly thanks to moderinzation, belt-tightening pro-capitalist reforms, and a close allegiance to the US. If there is one thing Chavez hates.... yes.. the US. Though, ironically, we buy all of his oil, which is the only thing keeping him in power. If I were POTUS, Citgo (the US arm of PDVSA - the Venezuelan national oil company) would be kicked out like Amy Winehouse at an AA meeting. Chaves recently sent troops to the Venezuelan border, as both countries claimed the other one was harboring and training terrorists. Though the tensions have eased somewhat in the last two weeks, we are still talking about two avowed enemies at each others throats. As the oil-riches of Venezuela decline under Chavez's mismanagement and Columbia's star continues to rise (and its military continues to be trained and supported by the US) the chance of conflict only increases.

Does it affect us?
Oh hell yes. Venezuela, even with its idiotic management (PDVSA is now run by a used-car dealer friend of Chavez, and they cant even figure out how to restart one of their major refineries after they shut it down for repairs and kicked the western companies which used to service it out of the country) still happens to be the 4th largest exporter of crude to the US. Which means if they went to war... we would be looking at some freaking expensive gasoline. Buh bye economic recovery. On top of this, the government of Columbia is supported by the US, and their military is closely tied to our military. Venezuela? Closely tied to and supported by Russia. Proxy war anyone? This would not be pretty.

Is it going to happen?
As I said before, tensions have eased off, somewhat. Troops have pulled back from the border, but they are still on high alert, and relations between the countries are far from normal. As is often the case with wars, what we are dealing with here is someone who is not acting in the best interests of his country, but rather than the best interests of himself. Which makes it pretty hard to predict what the country is going to do. Depends how much Chavez needs a scapegoat for his own fuckups at any particular point in time.

2) North vs. South Korea

The Story:

Does this really need to be explained? North Korea is run by insane and insular dictator, its people are starving and its economy barely exists. Actually, electricity barely exists, let alone a functioning economy.

Between the nuclear program and its increasingly bellicose approach to international relations (the sinking of the Cheonan being indicative of this), this country is still "stable" only because of the support it receives from China.

Does it affect us?

Yes. South Korea is a major trading partner and ally (witness the free trade agreement). Last time, when we supported the South it was to contain communism. Now it would be to protect the democratic 1st world from one of the remnants of the 20th century: repressive dictatorships which hold onto power through military and/or religious force. If North Korea attacks the South, it is likely to be a half-hearted affair akin to the much vaunted troops of Saadam standing against the US forces in the Gulf War: these are unpaid, often un-fed conscripts who have no choice but to be in the army. Their will is already broken, but sadly the rest of the world has simply let Kim Jong-il run the country into the ground and starve his own people.

Will it happen?

Probably not. Crazy as Kim & Co are, they know that they would be decimated in a war. However, desperate and crazy is not a good combination. Desperate and crazy and with nuclear weapons is even worse.

3) Israel Lebanon/Iran/Egypt/The Muslim World
The Story:

Israel and the Muslim world have never really been buddy-buddy. Before the last 25 years, they used to fight on a regular basis. However, kind of like a big dog trying to go after a cat, the Muslim world always lost. And lost badly. The smaller, nimbler, Israel had sharp claws and promptly smacked the combined Muslim forces on the nose every time.

Recently, Islam has become increasingly militaristic (blame for this does in part lie with the western powers, and the cold-war mentality of propping up military dictators). The revolutions in North Africa are something of a risk. While at one time, they could help solve the issues in the Middle East by ushering in a new age of democracy and stability with economic prosperity, they could also bring about a move to more militant Islam across the region, with real national power behind the aims of the Muslim Brotherhood and others. Egypt especially has long been the only Muslim partner with Israel, including helping blockade Gaza since Hamas took over. If it moved towards a hard line Islamic dictatorship, the region would become a tinder box.

At the same time, you of course have Iran, which is now run by the Revolutionary Guard, which is attempting to build nuclear weapons etc etc, and Israel has already stated a number of "red lines" where they will strike to protect themselves and their own interests.

Does it affect us?

Hell yes. Israel is a close ally, for better or worse. The rise of militant Islam is one of the great global unbalancing forces. Much as I would like to say that Democracy is what prevents conflict, that is not really true. What prevents conflict is economic prosperity, which is really a function of economy and thus capitalism, not democracy. Democracy prevents conflict once the economy is in place, or when the economy does not work, because in both situations the people want control over their own destiny. If economic development cannot be achieved in the middle east, and if military islamic dictatorships come to power, we are going to see ongoing conflict between Israel and its neighbors. These could at any time blow up into a full-scale conflict.

Will it happen?

A lot rests on the next 6mo. It is a huge opportunity for democracy and development. It is also a huge opportunity for military islam. Down one path we could see unprecedented development, down the other unprecedented conflict.

5) China vs. Taiwan
The Story:

This is the big one. The trigger point for what could be the next major conflict. China is building the capability necessary to defeat the US in a limited regional conflict. This is pretty much their explicit military aim. They are building subs, missiles, aircraft etc all targeted at taking Taiwan and preventing the US from having influence in the region (read - carrier battle groups).

Does it affect us?

Short answer: we have a treaty with Taiwan vowing to defend it.

Will it happen?

Probably. Its more a matter of when than anything else.