Book Of Norm

Somalia is a failed state, the best example of one globally. We call it a country, but it really only a country in terms of negative space, as it is not part of any other country. And because of that, it has become home to a modern day pirate coast, complete with infamous ports of call, crime, and all the rest of it. What is Russia's solution? Go in with ground troops and wipe out the pirate towns. I actually dont think it is the worst idea, but would be much better if there was actually a concerted effort to bring stability back to the country. It looked like there would be a in 2006, with a US backed incursion by Ethiopia, but that turned out to be just to break the power of the I.C.U., the Al Qaeda back Islamic courts which had gained power over much of southen Somalia. Interestingly, Somaila is doing much better since the civil war. It is an entirely free market system (as there is no government), but it is more developed than one would think, with a better education system tha...

hulu.com is a NBC/News Corp joint venture and does online HD full length movies and TV shows, in better quality than youtube (at least for now, as YouTube is planning a rival service).

The final Yugo has been built. WOO HOO!! w00t w00t wait...? I was amazed to find that they still made Yugo's, but on Nov. 20th, the last one came off the line. Which was a very very fantastic moment, because the thing is and was one of the worst pieces of crap ever built. I would rather try to ride a donkey across the country on I-80 than drive a Yugo on the same route. And if there were a race, the donkey would win. Granted, its a fast donkey, but there you-go.

Ford seems to have pulled off a very good deal selling Jag and Land Rover when they did (though at the time I will admit I was not sure), though the better deal would seemingly have been to get out of the auto industry altogether... Tata motors - the Indian auto company which is the not very proud new owner of the two renown British name plates - is asking the British govt. for $1 billion in loans to keep the operations afloat. Jag and Land Rover are luxury brands, and with conspicuous consumption one of the first things to go in a crises, their sales have tanked (along with the rest of the auto industry, to be fair). It does seem a little steep though, considering they are now owned by an Indian company, and only employ 15,000 workers in the UK. Sure, its a lot, but I am not sure even Gordon is going to step up to the plate on this one.

This was taken from an article supporting the UAW. Its logic is so impeccably stupid that I dont really need to say anything more: "There are plenty of people in this country who would desperately love to see all unions go away. Over the course of the congressional hearings on an automaker bailout this week many of those people have continually brought up the un-cited "fact" that UAW workers get $70/hour in wages and benefits as opposed to about $40 or so for non-unionized workers at the foreign owned transplants. While the UAW and the Detroit automakers have made more than their share of mistakes and deserve a good chunk of the blame for what is happening, there is a major problem with this particular argument. IT'S NOT TRUE! UAW members do not take home $70/hour. That is the automaker's cost per active employee. What's the difference? The latter figure is total spent by automakers on wages and benefits divided by the number of active employees. The cost of ...

Citi, which has been one of the worst investments I have made (though some options turned out alright, I started buying into the underlying when it was worth 7 times yesterday's close), is setting a new course for govt. bailouts. Now the govt. will be partners on billions of dollars in debt, a very different setup to the previous loans against troubled assets. Here is how the deal works: "Under the terms of the agreement, Citigroup will cover the first $29 billion of pretax losses from the $306 billion asset pool, in addition to reserves it already set aside. Citigroup will accept 10 percent of losses above that amount, with the government responsible for 90 percent. The Treasury is second in line, taking $5 billion in losses, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is third, absorbing up to $10 billion. If the portfolio plummets through those triggers, the Fed steps in with a loan for the remaining assets" This is mostly because of the SPVs (special purpose v...

today's woot the blog the community write us your account what is woot? Flexi USA PCPetID Pet ID Tag for Collar $7.99 + $5 shipping condition: New product: 1 Flexi USA PCPetID Pet ID Tag for Collar Discuss this product (54 comments) I want one! product info product stats Where, Oh Where Can He USB Here’s what you do: You take your most sensitive data—your access codes, instructions to your underlings in the event of your untimely death, naked pictures of your exes, whatever—and you s...

I recently had an issue with the USPS where they claimed to have delivered a package from Amazon to my front door. To the best of my knowledge, they never did, and I am highly doubtful that it showed up and then was somehow rapidly stolen in the middle of the day in Arlington. I could be wrong, but I would be surprised. The confusion came talking to the post office because you have to call before 9:00am to talk to anyone who knows anything. Turns out our regular guy was taking a day off on monday, so he did not know what happened. The guy who "delivered" it was taking a day yesterday. Finally talked to him today, and he says he remembers a package. Sure, whatever. Amazon on the other hand, quickly gave me a full refund for the cost of the purchase, including shipping. I am pretty damn impressed with Amazon, and disappointed (though unsurprised) with the USPS.

it is unlikely to pass. The idea was to give the automakers $25 billion out of the $700 billion designed to bail out the financial mess. But the automakers dont have the support they once did, and it looks like they will not be getting their money. Then again, only GM actually says they need it... At the same time, the $25 billion in 5% loans that they were already promised to go towards "green" innovations will likely be allowed to be used for anything they want, basically giving them liquidity. I agree with the move, but I find it highly inconsistent with the Fed lending programs which have bailed out "banks" by taking on much crappier assets against billions of taxpayer dollars... but inconsistency is the mark of govt. involvement in the economy, so I suppose I should not be surprised. I would, however, be a shame to lose GM or Ford. Chrysler, I believe, is slready gone (though Jeep and the Viper will live on, which is what really counts.)

Sent from James: The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance. -- Cicero , 55 BC Amazing that a) Rome was so well developed so long ago, and b) in the last 2000 years we have not learned a damn thing.

Crisis Hits the Business Schools Applications for MBA programs are up, but job opportunities for second-year students in finance or consulting have turned wretched By Alison Damast After nearly four years as a management consultant at such firms as Deloitte Consulting and Booz Allen Hamilton, Ari Perlman was itching to try his hand at investment banking. So this summer the 26-year-old MBA student at the University of Virginia's Darden School of Business signed on with Lehman Brothers for an internship. Then all hell broke loose. With the economy unraveling and much of Wall Street seemingly on the brink of collapse, Lehman slashed bonuses for interns. And by the time Perlman returned to campus, the company had filed for bankruptcy. Lehman's last check for Perlman's travel expenses? Bounced. An e-mail explained that a new check would be in the mail. Eventually. "I haven't heard anything from them since," says Perlman, who's now looking for a consulting j...

Somali pirates have seized a supertanker, their largest take to date. The MV Sirius Star, owned by the Saudi company Aramco, is over 1,000ft long and can carry 2 million barrels of oil, making it one of the largest tankers out there. It was seized south of the usual pirate waters, and further out to sea. Basically, they get on board, they hold the crew hostage, and demand $1-2 million. And it works. "People in Garoowe, a town south of Boosaaso, describe a certain high-rolling pirate swagger. Flush with cash, the pirates drive the biggest cars, run many of the town's businesses – like hotels – and throw the best parties, residents say.... This is too much for many Somali men to resist, and criminals from all across this bullet-pocked land are now flocking to Boosaaso and other notorious pirate dens along the craggy Somali shore. They have turned these waters into the most dangerous shipping lanes in the world" There are...

So the UAW has come out an said they are not to blame for the problems of the big three US automakers. Which is of course BS. They said it is the general economic meltdown. That might make a little bit of sense, if the big three had not been near death for the last 15 years. The only thing that kept them going has been truck sales, which are the only things that they actually made money on. The UAW is why Detroit is collapsing while the rest of the world plans on building more cars in the US. It is ridiculous for the UAW to say that they have no role in the automakers problems, in my eyes, they are the very root of the problem. It has been the manufacturing costs, the healthcare costs, and overall labor costs which have dragged Chrysler, GM, and Ford into the dirt. Granted, the automakers made some poor decisions themselves, but I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the overpaid, over-protected, and overly needy UAW. Unions have no place in a developed economy.

Forwarded from my Mom, good article on the uncertainties which still exist around climate change. Basically, when you actually drill down, there is little evidence that temperatures have been rising. At the same time, I think that we should work to limit pollution etc, but I dont think that it is "the crises of our generation" or any of that. The world has never seen such freezing heat By Christopher Booker Last Updated: 12:01am GMT 16/11/2008 Have your say Read comments A surreal scientific blunder last week raised a huge question mark about the temperature records that underpin the worldwide alarm over global warming. On Monday, Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), which is run by Al Gore's chief scientific ally, Dr James Hansen, and is one of four bodies responsible for monitoring global temperatures, announced that last month was the hottest October on record. A sudden cold snap brought snow to London in October Read m...

"A recent American study reported that many editors and reporters simply do not trust their readers to make good decisions. Let's be clear about what this means. This is a polite way of saying that these editors and reporters think their readers are too stupid to think for themselves." He was making the point that many newspapers have themselves to blame when it comes to falling readership. And I agree. He was also pointing out that in this day and age it is growing increasingly impossible for a editor to decide what is news and what is not. And I agree. I just disagree that newspapers are still going to be the way news is delivered in the future. Some will stick around, but not many, and almost no regional papers, eventually.

This is a very interesting article, and I have long believed that Obama is a narcissist, but whether that will lead to the doom predicted here I am not sure. I do believe that he believes more highly in himself than in anything else, and that is dangerous. Regardless, it is a very interesting read. Understanding Obama: The Making of a Fuehrer By Ali Sina I must confess I was not impressed by Sen. Barack Obama from the first time I saw him. At first I was excited to see a black candidate. He looked youthful, spoke well, appeared to be confident – a wholesome presidential package. I was put off soon, not just because of his shallowness but also because there was an air of haughtiness in his demeanor that was unsettling. His posture and his body language were louder than his empty words. Obama's speeches are unlike any political speech we have heard in American history. Never a politician in this land had such a quasi "religious...

I have seen a few reviews of the film, and they are mixed. Some say the plot is all over the place, and attribute this to the fact that there are three screenwriters: a sign that someone was brought in to fix the script. However, other reviews (admittedly, one of them British) loved the film, and thought it "took the clamps off" that kept Casino Royale moving slow. I kind of liked the slower movement, and am a little worried that Quantum of Solace heads a little to far towards Die Another Day, which I have tried hard to forget was ever made. Of course, I plan on seeing it, and soon.

The idea is to build small and safe nuclear reactors which will be buried underground and used to power small areas of the grid. It should power 20,000 homes for 8-10 years, and should be maintenance free for that time. The biggest benefit, as I see it, is that there is no nuclear power plant. Nuclear is the best fuel source we have, especially from an environmental standpoint, and the problem has always been NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard). In this case, Hyperion power plans to simply bury the small reactors. Not sure on cost, but factoring in the desire to be "green" I see a lot of regions buying in to this one, though enough to make it successful I am somewhat dubious about.

Good tool for checking out election results: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/results.htm One of the more interesting ones is how even in this landslide in an electoral college sense, there were very few counties (though important ones) which actually changed sides.

CBS and MGM are now offering full length ad-supported shows and movies on youtube. Hells yeah, I am a big fan of this. Plus, Google had to figure out some way to make money on their $1.6 billion investment. And I think it will be a big hit, if it is executed well (which considering how easy to use YouTube is, I cant see why it would not be.)

There is no Q in the new Bond movie. Wow. That is seriously upsetting news. To be totally up front about it, what the hell are they thinking? Granted, I like the new darker/edgier Bond, but no Q? Why? Why do that? Granted, there were times it was over the top, and some of the product placements in the Bronsnan era were especially annoying, but there is still something fantastic about using a laser from your watch, flying suitcase helicopter, or having stinger missiles in your z3. I am still very excited about the movie, just upset they decided to forgo one of the main ingredients to a long time winning recipe.

is out of control. In a good way. Frankie asked me a little while back if there was a Galt's Gulch somewhere on Earth. Right now, I would say that place is Dubai - a city made of capitalism, drive, and energy. Without oil reserves, the Kingdom of Dubai has still managed to become on of the great epicenters of the world economy. And one thing they love are crazy engineering projects. While Palms and the Earth (artificial islands) are probably my favorite, it is the skyscrapers which are really wild. Burj Dubai is the worlds tallest building, and will be far far taller than anything else when it is complete. But it will not even hold the title in Dubai for long, as the Nakheel tower will come to dwarf it sometime in the next decade. Comparison shot below. For me, I am just glad that we are finally pushing the limits, and pushing higher. The fact that a building completed in 1931 is still on the list shows that we have not pushed as far as we should (though it also shows just how inc...

more on this later, but good summary I found: 1. AIG’s problems are in credit default swaps and securities lending . AIG on Monday reported a third-quarter net loss of nearly $25 billion. But the company’s big headaches haven’t been in its bread-and-butter insurance business, but rather in lesser-known lines. AIG is a big player in credit default swaps--which are essentially insurance contracts that pay out when a company defaults--and is also involved in securities lending. Turmoil in these two businesses have hammered AIG’s balance sheet, causing a severe liquidity crunch. 2. The original bailout was a punishment . Although the Feds stepped in to rescue AIG--while at the same time refusing to bail out Lehman Brothers --it did so in a punitive fashion. The original rescue package came with a painfully high interest rate of LIBOR plus 8.5 percentage points. That put pressure on AIG’s management team to sell assets quickly to pay it back. But such emergency selling--coupled with the c...

First post election gaffe, and its a pretty bad one. However, you will not have heard of it, because his mistakes are never broadcast. When asked if he had talked to all living previous Presidents, Obama responded: "I have spoken to all of them who are living, I didn’t want to get into a Nancy Reagan thing about doing any séances." Bad taste hardly describes it.

Bulgaria, in search of tourism dollars (complicated by its seriously unsexy name, and the ex-soviet thing), is building a city at the bottom of a lake. Well, actually, digging up an old, old town which is now at the bottom of a lake. Seuthopolis, was discovered in 1948, but in 1954 a dam broke an flooded the region, making the lake it now sits in the middle of. The plan is to build a giant circular dike, and then use the site as a tourist attraction. Impressive, but it will be tough to make this more than a one-trick-pony. There better be some actually impressive stuff in the town..

Official files about UFO encounters. There should be more on this in this blog, because I am a firm believer in UFO's, as the number of credible reports are simply far to high to ignore, and there are, in my mind, no logical explanations other than aliens. Article not my own: The UK Ministry of Defense has just declassified nineteen secret files detailing UFO encounters over the past decades, one of them involving a USAF Sabre fighter pilot who was ordered to fire at will against an unidentified flying object in British airspace. Unfortunately—or fortunately—lieutenant Milton Torres lost the contact after the UFO left the scene at a whooping 9,941 miles per hour . According to him, it had the proportions of an aircraft carrier : The blip was burning a hole in the radar with its incredible intensity. It was similar to a blip I had received from B52s and seemed to be a magnet of light. It had the proportions of a flying aircraft carrier. According to the Ministry of Defense, it a...

Basically, GM is in no fit state to buy anything. They are worth less than AGCO (less than famous tractor manufacturer), and about 1/150th of what VW is worth right now. And to buy things, you should be selling things, something GM has not been so hot at recently. So, along comes a company which is actually well run, effective, efficient, and growing quickly. Hyundai. They are one of the best car companies out there, and I think, with a long way to grow. I ahave watched and liked them for a long time, though to date they have not built a car that I would really want (the v6 sonata when it came out a couple years ago was the closest), they have an impressive record of getting better and better every year, and selling more cars. Unsurprisingly, and just as in the AMC sale to Chrysler 20 years ago, the asset which is really desireable is Jeep. Jeep is a great brand name, carries a lot of weight here and abroad, and has a solid lineup of trucks and CUVs (though no so good on the CUV part)....

Researchers have recently found a new very little dude who is a lot better at making diesel. Same idea basically as making ethanol, or beer, but this guy (pictured) will actually eat trees, bark, etc. rather than just the gourmet rice, wheat, and other cereals other bacteria feast on. Just been found, so no short term prospects, but long term, could really help out with the turning-old-junk-into-fuel campaign.

I have gotten two of these personally, and they are really friggin annoying. Did not realize it was a US - wide scam. Basically, you get a call saying "urgent, your factory warranty is about to expire." It was blatantly a scam, but it seems quite a lot of people have bought extended warranties from the scammers. Seems they are pretty good at not getting caught though. One number being used was traced to a disconnected phone in Nebraska that had belonged to an illegal immigrant who had been deported after a meat-packing plant raid. Yeah. So, hopefully the annoying calls stop soon, but incredible that a small scam shop with a computer and some phone phreaking skillz can dial the entire country and not get caught, at least not yet.

China is pumping in $586 billion in infrastructure spending, as well as capital gains tax cuts to try and stop the economy from slowing too drastically. Basically, if they drop from 12% to 5% growth, it is basically a recession for them, and would have similar effects on their economy. Thus, they are spending what comes to 15% of annual economic output. That is a big stimulus package. What worries me more is if loans in china start to go bad with the weakening economy. Then we are in for a very hard landing.

Honda has for a long time been big on robotics. And they have just released a robotic walking assistant for those who need help. Medically, a big step forward. But... well just look.

I kid you not. I couldnt make this stuff up anyway... "JumpSnap is the world's 1st patent pending ropeless jump rope. Get all the undistputed calorie burning benefits of a traditional jump rope without the interruptions of tripping on the rope." Yeah. Coming up next, the weight free free weights.

Some interesting science here... and pretty wild. Seems the way that we are affected by solar wind is that every eight minutes the earth's and the sun's magnetic fields "connect" so that for a short burst we are hit directly by the solar wind, while the rest of the time our magnetic field sweeps the wind around us. very odd indeed. Full article below: Strange Portal Connects Earth to Sun By Jeanna Bryner Senior Writer posted: 03 November 2008 08:22 am ET Like giant, cosmic chutes between the Earth and sun, magnetic portals open up every eight minutes or so to connect our planet with its host star. Once the portals open, loads of high-energy particles can travel the 93 million miles (150 million km) through the conduit during its brief opening, space scientists say. Called a flux transfer event, or FTE, such cosmic connections not only exist but are possibly twice as common as anyone ever imagined, according to space scientists who attended t...

So, if you want a blueprint for what the Govt. should have been doing before this crises ever happened, this is a must read. It is the official report on hedge funds and leverage from 1999 after the collapse of Long Term Capital Management (the most famous of all hedge fund collapses, and a potential major blow to the markets). It applies equally well to investment banks and leveraged banking institutions. It is also a good primer on what exactly went wrong.   I warn you it is as dry as the Bonneville salt flats and far far less exciting. But I am up to my neck in this stuff on a daily basis (at least for now) and thought I should share the love. Read on.. if you love reading about credit risk.       The public policy issue raised by market participants' use of leverage is, first, determining the proper balance between the benefit leverage confers to markets and the potential systemic risk posed by high levels of leverage. If it is determined that...

quick update: along with his missiles in NATO's backyard proposal, Medvedev also brought up the idea that the Russian Presidential term be extended to 6 years, coming into effect for the next President... whoever that might be....   Which would lead to the next President, lets hypothetically call him "Rutin", being able to serve for 12 years. At which time he would be able to invoke a clause which nominated him to "Everlasting God King" and automatically make the bottom 1/3 of the population indentured serfs.

We all know it. Or at least I assume we do. And I loved it. I went right from DOS to this, and man was it cool. It had graphics, and windows, and a file manager, and PAINT!!! It was the coolest damn thing. And until 1/11/2008, Microsoft was still selling it. Yes. I am not lying. Really. I promise. No i wont pinkie promise, look it up, they sold it till this weekend. Mostly it was actually for thinks like cash registers and the almost-as-awesome-as-paint Virgin Entertainment system in Virgin Atlantic planes, which brought about the personalized in-flight entertainment revolution. But on Nov 1st, Microsoft decided enough was enough and stopped selling licenses. A sad, sad time. But a legendary OS which will always soldier on in our hearts. And in the fact that modern windows looks pretty damn similar.

When I was speaking with James last night, we guessed Russia would try an aggressive move early in the Obama Presidency in order to test the waters and see just how weak he will prove to be on hard power issues. It did not take four months. Or four weeks. It took about four hours.   This morning Russia announced it would be deploying its Iskander missile system in Kaliningrad - the medium sized exclave between Lithuania and Poland.   It is a highly advanced non-ballistic, non-nuclear missile system. It is designed specifically to avoid defenses such as the Patriot missile system though non-linear movements, decoys launched when nearing the target, and a flat flight profile. The purpose supposedly is to "neutralize - if necessary - the [US] anti-missile system" according to Medvedev.    In other words, Russia sees this election as an opportunity to push harder against a weakened and introspective United States. And sadly, ...

The good news is that it looks like the Democrats will be held to 57 seats in the Senate - which does not give them the 60 needed for a filibuster-proof majority. Other than that, for me, the only big surprise came with the passing of decriminalization of marijuana in Mass. And sadly that Ma. residents seem to believe there is a benefit to paying more of their money to the Govt. and thus not striking down the state income tax.

Working this out for my paper, thought I would put it up for general review.       1) the aggressive fund of 18months ago, a fund running 5 to 1 leverage. An investor takes $100,000 and puts it in a Fund of funds investment vehicle. That FoF then leverages the assets 3 to 1 to enhance returns. This was standard practice. The fund itself is running 5 to 1 leverage provided by a prime broker -- high, but still very plausible. The fund takes the money and invests it in CDOs, which are built with leverage, commonly 9 to 1 leverage. Where does that get you?   135 to 1   It takes only a 75bps (0.75%) drop to wipe out the original capital.   Looking at a perhaps more realistic example, a similar fund with a none too unusual asset allocation model:   Percent Loss to lose the principal 2.041% Total Leverage Ratio 49 Sum ...