Why Haven't We Made It Back To The Moon: WWHMIBTTM
We have landed on the moon a few times. But the last time that a person set foot on the moon was 1972: 40 years ago. Given the current plans of the major space powers, it is unlikely that we will go back before 50 years have passed since Apollo 17. Why? More specifically, WHWMIBTTM?
And the thing is - it hurts. It hurts because I might be 40 before I see someone land on the moon. Which is ridiculous, considering it first happened over a decade before I was born.
But lets look back on human history, and try and figure out why people explored and moved, and when similar events (though on different time scales) occurred in human history.
1) The Vikings in North America
The Vikings came to North America first. They had some pretty large settlements too. But then they left, and no European would return for about 400 years.
Why?
Because there was no money to be made. There was little to no industry at that point, and the Vikings were making a killing raiding as far south as North Africa (they were also doing a lot of killing generally speaking). North America on the other hand offered very little: another piece of land to live on, but with nothing there "of value." The US only really started to take off 600 years later when Europe wanted cash crops.
2) The Bottom Of The World
On January 23, 1960, we went to the bottom of the world. Crewed by Jacques Piccard (son of the boat's designer Auguste Piccard) and U.S. Navy Lieutenant Don Walsh, mankind made it to almost 36,000ft under the water. And then, we didn't go back until two months ago.
Why?
Because there was no money to be made. Making it down that far is expensive and dangerous. The Navy did it really to prove that they could do it. James Cameron went back a few months ago to film an IMAX movie (and, I suspect, because he just really wanted to do it). In other words, we left it alone for 50 years because there was no money to be made....
3) Cars
The first car was built in 1771, or 140 years before the Model T. That's a long time to hit general adoption. The first car was steam powered, incredibly unstable, and designed for carrying heavy loads. It was built by Nicolas-Joseph Cugnot (a crazy Frenchman), and it never quite achieved its goals.
Why?
Because there was no money to be made. Shocking? Not really. At the time, this thing was way less efficient than a few horses, and so it was a pretty tough sell. It would take 130 years for the technology to improve enough to make the whole idea economically attractive.
4) The Northwest Passage
The Northwest Passage was first navigated by Roald Amundsen in 1903–1906 (yeah... it took a while). The first time it was navigable economically was 2009. Back in the day, Amundsen took a pretty small converted Norwegian fishing vessel and managed to make it across the Arctic. Freaking impressive. But, no one did it again for 100 years.
Why?
Because there was no money to be made. The crossing took too long, was dangerous as hell, and didn't exactly speed up trade. Until the ice retreated and technology got better... and now countries are fighting like mad about who owns the Northwest Passage - 100 years after we first did it.
5) The Computer
Charles Babbage figured out the mechanical computer way back in the day. He designed the "difference engine" back in about 1820 (originally). It was an incredibly innovative mechanical way to do mathematical calculations. It could have revolutionized all kinds of businesses...but it didn't. It would be another 120yrs before computers came into their own.
Why?
Because it was actually impossible to build the thing in the 19th century. The pic you see above was built in 1990 - using modern tolerances. Basically, the technology wasn't there to properly build the amazing machine, because every part had to fit together so well, and back then, parts didn't.
WHWMIBTTM
So - why haven't we made it back? Simple really: technology and money. When we first did it we were on the breakneck edge of technology. It cost huge sums of money and while the returns were amazing in terms of technology breakthroughs and national pride, it would not be successful as a commercial enterprise.
So what do we need? Better technology - which is coming (yay SpaceX and everyone else working on new launch systems orders of magnitude cheaper than the current generation). We also need an economic incentive - like most of what you have seen above - it only becomes common when you can make money at it.
Well get there soon, I hope.
 |
| Map of Moon Landings - Manned and Unmanned |
But lets look back on human history, and try and figure out why people explored and moved, and when similar events (though on different time scales) occurred in human history.
1) The Vikings in North America
The Vikings came to North America first. They had some pretty large settlements too. But then they left, and no European would return for about 400 years.
Why?
Because there was no money to be made. There was little to no industry at that point, and the Vikings were making a killing raiding as far south as North Africa (they were also doing a lot of killing generally speaking). North America on the other hand offered very little: another piece of land to live on, but with nothing there "of value." The US only really started to take off 600 years later when Europe wanted cash crops.
2) The Bottom Of The World
On January 23, 1960, we went to the bottom of the world. Crewed by Jacques Piccard (son of the boat's designer Auguste Piccard) and U.S. Navy Lieutenant Don Walsh, mankind made it to almost 36,000ft under the water. And then, we didn't go back until two months ago.
Why?
Because there was no money to be made. Making it down that far is expensive and dangerous. The Navy did it really to prove that they could do it. James Cameron went back a few months ago to film an IMAX movie (and, I suspect, because he just really wanted to do it). In other words, we left it alone for 50 years because there was no money to be made....
3) Cars
The first car was built in 1771, or 140 years before the Model T. That's a long time to hit general adoption. The first car was steam powered, incredibly unstable, and designed for carrying heavy loads. It was built by Nicolas-Joseph Cugnot (a crazy Frenchman), and it never quite achieved its goals.
Why?
Because there was no money to be made. Shocking? Not really. At the time, this thing was way less efficient than a few horses, and so it was a pretty tough sell. It would take 130 years for the technology to improve enough to make the whole idea economically attractive.
4) The Northwest Passage
The Northwest Passage was first navigated by Roald Amundsen in 1903–1906 (yeah... it took a while). The first time it was navigable economically was 2009. Back in the day, Amundsen took a pretty small converted Norwegian fishing vessel and managed to make it across the Arctic. Freaking impressive. But, no one did it again for 100 years.
 |
| Not very big... for three years... in the ice... |
Because there was no money to be made. The crossing took too long, was dangerous as hell, and didn't exactly speed up trade. Until the ice retreated and technology got better... and now countries are fighting like mad about who owns the Northwest Passage - 100 years after we first did it.
5) The Computer
Charles Babbage figured out the mechanical computer way back in the day. He designed the "difference engine" back in about 1820 (originally). It was an incredibly innovative mechanical way to do mathematical calculations. It could have revolutionized all kinds of businesses...but it didn't. It would be another 120yrs before computers came into their own.
Why?
Because it was actually impossible to build the thing in the 19th century. The pic you see above was built in 1990 - using modern tolerances. Basically, the technology wasn't there to properly build the amazing machine, because every part had to fit together so well, and back then, parts didn't.
WHWMIBTTM
So - why haven't we made it back? Simple really: technology and money. When we first did it we were on the breakneck edge of technology. It cost huge sums of money and while the returns were amazing in terms of technology breakthroughs and national pride, it would not be successful as a commercial enterprise.
So what do we need? Better technology - which is coming (yay SpaceX and everyone else working on new launch systems orders of magnitude cheaper than the current generation). We also need an economic incentive - like most of what you have seen above - it only becomes common when you can make money at it.
Well get there soon, I hope.
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