China's Carriers, Taiwan's Subs, and one crazy story
While mostly these carriers have been set up as amusements/attractions, the Varyag especially is likely to be used in a military, albeit training, capacity. As is typical with China, they have tried to acquire knowledge from outside sources, and then will likely design and build their own indigenous design which is an upgrade of the older units they derived their knowledge from. China often takes a long term and meticulous route to this in order to develop their own capacity, rather than India which generally just buys military hardware directly for use.
China has agreed to buy 50 Su-33 carrier aircraft from Russia, and has set up a fake carrier deck at one of its flight schools for pilots to practice carrier landings.
All this leads China-watchers to conclude that China is looking to have its own carrier in operation by the end of the decade, or early in the next decade.
Strategically, this would vastly unbalance the region, as with "blue water" capability, China could attack Taiwan from both sides, and cut off approaches to the island from the East. China is well aware of the huge benefit a carrier would provide in a conflict with Taiwan.
The counter to carriers is submarines. And here, Taiwan is lacking. They have four ships: two two Hai Lung-class (improved Dutch Zwaardvis-design) submarines, which were acquired from the Netherlands in the 1980s, and two US GUPPY II boats used for training. The GUPPY II was a WWII design. China was so angry with the Netherlands over the sale of the two subs that it almost severed relations with the country. In 1992 Taiwan wanted four more Zwaardvis boats, but the Netherlands turned them down because of China's reaction to the first sale. The Zwaardvis is a capable medium sized disel sub, as it is based entirely on the US Barbel-class: the last diesel sub made by the US.
Similar difficulties have postponed Taiwan's wishes to aquire 8 new diesel subs. Taiwan's position in the world (not officially existing) has made any sale complicated, as has their desire for the latest technology. The Italians reportedly agreed to a sale of four Sauro class boats, and four more as they are decommissioned by the Italian Navy, but Taiwan rejected the offer, preferring new submarines instead. The Sauro is a small and basic submarine by modern standards.
Both Russia and India have offered to sell Taiwan subs. However, these offers were turned down. It is likely that the subs offered were older boats, and likely nuclear boats at that. Taiwan has no near for nuclear attack subs: they are much larger and more expensive to maintain than an efficient diesel sub. Nuclear sub's advantages lie in the ability to stay at sea for very long periods and to remain nearly indefinitely submerged. Diesel subs, generally speaking, are more effective per $ when the objective is short range defense, especially against surface ships rather than enemy subs.
The last option, and one that has been going around in circles for a while, is that the US either builds an updated Barbel-class for Taiwan, or sells the plans for the Barbel to Taiwan so that it can build its own. However, politics in both countries have so far prevented this, with the Taiwanese opposition party strongly opposed to the expenditure, and many in the US worried about the possible reaction from China. It is unlikely with the current administration that anything will happen on this front.
Last, is the interesting story of the Varyag: the one purchased aircraft carrier that China may actually commission, though it is unlikely. Quoting from Wikipedia, the story of the Varyag makes an interesting read:
Varyag was to be an Admiral Kuznetsov class multirole aircraft carrier. She was known as Riga[1] when her keel was laid down at Nikolayev South (formerly Shipyard 444) in Nikolayev December 6, 1985,[2] and she was launched December 4, 1988, but she was renamed Varyag (Varangian) in late 1990, after the famous Russian cruiser.
Construction stopped by 1992 with the ship structurally complete but without electronics. Ownership was transferred to Ukraine as the Soviet Union broke up and the ship was laid up unmaintained, then stripped. In early 1998, she lacked engines, a rudder, and much of her operating systems. She was put up for auction.
In April 1998, Ukrainian Trade Minister Roman Shpek announced the winning bid—$20 million USD from a small Hong Kong company called the Chong Lot Travel Agency Ltd. Chong Lot proposed to tow Varyag out of the Black Sea, through the Suez Canal and around southern Asia to Macau, where they would moor the ship and convert it into a floating hotel and gambling parlor.[2] It would be similar to the attractions Kiev in Tianjin and Minsk at Minsk World in Shenzhen.
Chong Lot is owned by a Hong Kong firm called Chin Luck (Holdings) Company. Four of Chin Luck's six board members live in Yantai, China where a major Chinese Navy shipyard is located. Chin Luck's chairman is a former career military officer with the People's Liberation Army.
In mid-2000, the Dutch ITC tugboat Suhaili with a Filipino crew was hired to take Varyag under tow. However, Chong Lot could not get permission from Turkey to transit the dangerous Bosporus strait; under the Montreux Treaty of 1936 Turkey has obligations to permit free passage, but has certain sovereignty and refusal rights. The hulk spent 16 months under commercial tow circling in the Black Sea. High-level PRC government ministers conducted negotiations in Ankara on Chong Lot's behalf, offering to allow Chinese tourists to visit cash-strapped Turkey if the travel agency's ship were allowed to pass through the straits. On 1 November 2001, Turkey finally relented from its position that the vessel posed too great of a danger to the bridges of Istanbul, and allowed the transit.
Escorted by 27 vessels including 11 tug boats and three pilot boats, Varyag took six hours to transit the strait; most large ships take an hour and a half. The Russian press reported that 16 pilots and 250 seamen were involved.The Suez Canal does not permit passage of "dead" ships — those without their own on-board power source — so the hulk was towed through the Straits of Gibraltar, around the Cape of Good Hope, and through the Straits of Malacca. The tugs towing the hulk maintained an average speed of 6 knots (11 km/h) over the 15,200-nautical-mile (28,200 km) journey.
They entered Chinese waters on 20 February 2002, and arrived 3 March at Dalian Shipyard in northeastern China. China continued to assert that Varyag would be a casino. However, when Macau awarded new casino licenses in February 2002, Chong Lot was not among successful bidders. The hulk was tied up at Dalian and left to rust. The total cost of acquiring the hulk was over $30 million USD: $25 million to the Ukrainian government for the hull, nearly $500,000 in transit fees, and some $5 million for the towing.
After little activity for three years, Varyag was moved in early June 2005 to a dry dock at Dalian. Her hull was sandblasted and scaffolding erected around her. The most visible modification done to the Varyag is that her island has been painted in a red marine primer that is used to treat corroded metal.
Analysts believe that the PLAN will use Varyag as a training platform for carrier take-offs and landings.Also recent photos in the Dalian Shipyard have shown that a yellow anti-skid primer was added to the flightdeck. Then the final flight deck turf layering was added on top of it. The vessel has also been painted in the standard PLA Naval colours. This may indicate that the PLA Navy intend to use the ex-Varyag as an operational carrier at some point in the future.
Jane's Fighting Ships states that Varyag may have been named Shi Lang and assigned pennant number 83. Jane's notes that both the name and pennant number are unconfirmed, however. Shi Lang was a Ming-Qing Dynasty admiral who claimed Taiwan in 1681.[4] Jane's Navy International noted in October 2007 that 'refurbishment work and fitting out is continuing and the vessel is expected to begin initial sea trials in 2008.'[5] However, at the end of 2008, the carrier is still lying idle in dry dock.
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