Israel vs. Iran
Looking at a possible strike from a strategic standpoint:
Most Iranian nuclear facilities are approximately 1,000 miles from Israel. The IAF is really designed for defense (oddly enough). What this means, is that any air strike is going to rely on the 5 to 7 aging KC-707 tankers (basically the same old workhorse the US is trying to replace). Thats not many. As a result, the maximum number of F-15/F-16's will be about 30-40. Splitting these between support (such as taking out the anti-aircraft and command facilities) and the actual bombers will mean that Israel has a very small margin of error for hitting their targets.
At the same time, Iran is trying to buy the Russian made SA-20 or "Favorite." This is roughly equivalent to the American Patriot missile system. It has previously not decided to go ahead with a purchase, because it did not want to spend the money (a few hundred million, minimum). However, given the current state of affairs and the price of oil, it is thought the purchase is not far off (with some reports stating it has always happened.) Got to love those Russians for supplying all the right people with weaponry.. and China.. and France... odd they are usually the nations opposed to UN sanctions... The end result is that if Iran is confirmed to be installing the system, Israel will strike. As I said before, the margin for error is small, and this system would put any mission in jeopardy.
The third piece of the puzzle is Israel's new Airborne Early Warning aircraft, the Eitam. Impressively, this aircraft (which is very highly advanced in terms of monitoring and battlefield control) is built into a Gulfstream G550 airframe. The benefit of this, other than the lower operating cost, is that the radar signature looks like a commercial aircraft, and with signal masking and the outdated equipment of Iran, the aircraft could likely pose as a business jet, staying in commercial lanes, and gather info on Iran. It is likely already doing so. This gives Israel a further edge in recon and monitoring.
The last element is when the cascade at Natanz produces enough enriched uranium to build a bomb, an event expected sometime in the next 1 to 2 years. Again, when they do, Israel will strike.
The end result: unless diplomacy heads of the situation, Israel will strike. From a strategic standpoint, the best time to do so is in the next 1 to 2 months, maximum the next year. Israel does not play the wait and see what happens game like the rest of the world did with North Korea (which, it seems, did actually work out.) They believe that an Iranian nuclear warhead (possibly shaped using technology by the lovely Mr. Khan of Pakistan which can fit atop the Nodong supplied by N. Korea) would be used against them. So they will strike first.
I love the fact that everyone blames the US (as a capitalist country) for always trying to make money off of things such as the Iraq war (which is blatantly false), when it is Russia and China, the two global powers furthest from capitalism, who consistently oppose solving issues in the world just so that they can make money off of tension, conflict, and warmongering dictators.
Chalk one up for capitalism, but in the meantime, lets hope that Israel can keep their guns holstered.
Most Iranian nuclear facilities are approximately 1,000 miles from Israel. The IAF is really designed for defense (oddly enough). What this means, is that any air strike is going to rely on the 5 to 7 aging KC-707 tankers (basically the same old workhorse the US is trying to replace). Thats not many. As a result, the maximum number of F-15/F-16's will be about 30-40. Splitting these between support (such as taking out the anti-aircraft and command facilities) and the actual bombers will mean that Israel has a very small margin of error for hitting their targets.
At the same time, Iran is trying to buy the Russian made SA-20 or "Favorite." This is roughly equivalent to the American Patriot missile system. It has previously not decided to go ahead with a purchase, because it did not want to spend the money (a few hundred million, minimum). However, given the current state of affairs and the price of oil, it is thought the purchase is not far off (with some reports stating it has always happened.) Got to love those Russians for supplying all the right people with weaponry.. and China.. and France... odd they are usually the nations opposed to UN sanctions... The end result is that if Iran is confirmed to be installing the system, Israel will strike. As I said before, the margin for error is small, and this system would put any mission in jeopardy.
The third piece of the puzzle is Israel's new Airborne Early Warning aircraft, the Eitam. Impressively, this aircraft (which is very highly advanced in terms of monitoring and battlefield control) is built into a Gulfstream G550 airframe. The benefit of this, other than the lower operating cost, is that the radar signature looks like a commercial aircraft, and with signal masking and the outdated equipment of Iran, the aircraft could likely pose as a business jet, staying in commercial lanes, and gather info on Iran. It is likely already doing so. This gives Israel a further edge in recon and monitoring.
The last element is when the cascade at Natanz produces enough enriched uranium to build a bomb, an event expected sometime in the next 1 to 2 years. Again, when they do, Israel will strike.
The end result: unless diplomacy heads of the situation, Israel will strike. From a strategic standpoint, the best time to do so is in the next 1 to 2 months, maximum the next year. Israel does not play the wait and see what happens game like the rest of the world did with North Korea (which, it seems, did actually work out.) They believe that an Iranian nuclear warhead (possibly shaped using technology by the lovely Mr. Khan of Pakistan which can fit atop the Nodong supplied by N. Korea) would be used against them. So they will strike first.
I love the fact that everyone blames the US (as a capitalist country) for always trying to make money off of things such as the Iraq war (which is blatantly false), when it is Russia and China, the two global powers furthest from capitalism, who consistently oppose solving issues in the world just so that they can make money off of tension, conflict, and warmongering dictators.
Chalk one up for capitalism, but in the meantime, lets hope that Israel can keep their guns holstered.
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